On Tuesday morning, CNN’s Harry Enten reportedly offered a warning to Democrats: despite Kamala Harris’ improved poll numbers, Donald Trump remains a very viable candidate for the 2024 presidential election who would win the race if polls were off as much today as they were in 2020.
“We put out those poll numbers yesterday, you know, New York Times-Siena College, we covered them. I showed you the Ipsos polling, all of which showed Kamala Harris with clear momentum and enthusiasm potentially on her side. But I just want to take a step back and sort of point out we’ve kind of been here before,” Enten said.
“So August 13, how far where the polls off in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — and this is in 2016 and 2020 — Trump was [under]estimated both times around and by significant margins. Take a look here, in 2016 the average poll in those states they mentioned, those Great Lakes battleground states, Trump was underestimated by nine points on average at this point in 2016. How about 2020? It wasn’t a one off, look at this: He was underestimated by five points on average.” he continued.
“And of course Kamala Harris’s advantage in those New York Times-Siena College polls were four points in each of these key battleground states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. The bottom line is this: If you have any idea- if you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it,” he added.
“Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift like we’ve seen in prior years, from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but I am saying that he is very much in this ballgame based upon where he is right now, and compare that to where he was in prior years.” he concluded.
Enten went on to explain that, while there has been considerable talk about the Harris campaign’s enthusiasm, polling reveals that Republicans are slightly more likely than Democrats to say they will vote than they were a few months ago.
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