Harry Enten, a senior data correspondent at CNN, stated on Monday that the Republican nominee, Donald Trump, is performing better in swing states than he did in the 2020 election.
According to a fresh New York Times/Siena College poll conducted on Monday, Trump is currently leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 5 points in Arizona and by 4 and 3 points in Georgia and North Carolina.
Enten also pointed to Harris’ 2-point lead in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, asserting that there is a “great divide” between the Sun Belt and deep Lake states.
“You’ve got a lot of red on this screen, this is pretty good news for Donald Trump … You take it all together in these three key battleground states, two of which [President] Joe Biden carried 4 years ago, we see that Donald Trump is ahead and by an average of 4 points, significantly better than he did back in 2020 across all of these states,” Enten said.
He attributed the former president’s higher polling averages in Sun Belt states to the more racially “diverse” composition of Trump’s coalition.
Specifically, his support among non-white voters increased from 16% in 2020 to 20% in 2024.
“If you know anything about those Sun Belt battleground states, it’s that they are more diverse than those Great Lake battleground states. In the Southwest, they’re more Hispanic than they are nationwide, in the South, Southeast, North Carolina and Georgia, they are more African American than they are nationwide. And I think the real question here is, what does this mean for the electoral map because that’s what we’re all interested in and look folks, it’s just as tight as it can possibly be.” Enten added.
Enten presented a sampled electoral map that indicated Harris would win 276 to 262 if the polling in the Great Lakes states is entirely accurate.
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