The most recent 2024 election forecast from data expert Nate Silver reportedly indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris is withdrawing even further ahead of former President Donald Trump.
Harris currently has a 58% likelihood of gaining the presidency, as opposed to Trump’s 42%, according to Silver’s “Silver Bulletin” election model.
The statistics were reversed in early September, with Trump’s likelihood of victory exceeding 60%.
Silver provides an explanation for the changes in the surveys that resulted in the opposite of his forecast.
“Lotta polling and our model mostly likes it for Harris. Her national polling lead is up to 3 points, and decent polling for her in GA/NC, too,” Silver said.
The one place where she’s had a string of bad polls is Arizona, but it has only a 5% chance of being the tipping-point state.
“Forecast still in toss-up range, but we’re at a point where you’d probably rather have Harris’s hand to play. One last factor: positive revisions to economic data boosted our economic index quite a bit, that helps Harris too.” he added.
Silver’s most recent description of his prognosis indicates that Harris, in contrast to Trump, has two viable paths to securing the Electoral College.
Harris can be elected president despite losing all of the toss-up states and gaining Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
As recently as a few weeks ago Silver’s model showed Trump up over Harris in the betting odds.
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