Former President Trump is currently marginally ahead of Vice President Harris in pollster Nate Silver’s highly regarded election forecast as we approach Labor Day weekend.
Harris is currently leading the former president by 3.8 points, according to the most recent national polling tracker from the Silver Bulletin.
However, the vice president’s likelihood of winning the Electoral College has decreased.
Silver predicts that Trump has a 52.4 percent likelihood of winning the Electoral College, which is approximately 5 percent higher than Harris’s 47.3 percent.
“Some of this is because of the convention bounce adjustment that the model applies to polls that were conducted during or after the [Democratic National Convention]. It assumes Harris’s polls are somewhat inflated right now, in other words — just as it assumed Trump’s numbers were inflated after the [Republican National Convention].” Silver wrote.
Harris has reduced the polling disparity with the former president since she succeeded President Biden as the party’s presidential nominee, reducing the advantage Trump held during his campaign against the incumbent president.
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