New data indicates that immigrants who entered the U.S. without documentation during the Biden-Harris administration’s tenure could influence election outcomes favoring Democrats for years to come.
A report by MarketWatch highlights a significant rise—averaging 515%—in undocumented populations across seven critical swing states since Biden and Harris took office, during a period of approximately 10 million new arrivals.
In particular, Arizona and Michigan saw increases exceeding 700%, numbers that surpass the margins of victory in the 2020 state elections.
This demographic shift might be advantageous Democratic hopefuls, including Harris, in upcoming elections.
Foreign-born voters leaned Democratic in 2020, and the Center for Immigration Studies suggests undocumented immigrants might similarly impact Harris’s chances.
“Assuming non-citizens would have the same voting preferences as naturalized citizens in 2016, then it would require 4.49 percent of non-citizens to vote in Georgia and 5.13 percent to vote in Arizona in 2024 for the net gain in votes for Harris to exceed the margin of victory in the last presidential election,” the report stated.
Researcher Jon Sutz on Substack found that in states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and others, the surge in undocumented residents under the current administration outweighs the last presidential election’s narrow victories.
Georgia’s undocumented population expanded over 400% since 2020, with Biden’s win margin at just over 12,000. Similarly, Arizona’s increase overshadows its 2020 victory margin of just over 10,000 votes.
Meanwhile, a recent poll found broad support for election integrity measures by Americans on each side of the aisle.
Gallup’s October survey found that 84% of Americans endorse voter ID requirements at polls, with 83% backing proof of citizenship for new voter registrations.
Among Democrats, 66% support citizenship documentation and 67% photo ID for voting.
Republican backing for these measures stood at 98% and 96%, respectively, while independents showed 84% support for both.
